Friday was the last trading day of the month of August. Time to update the IVY timing portfolio signals. This post updates the signals for the basic IVY 5 asset class timing portfolio, also known as GTAA 5.
You can see the spreadsheet on line here. The spreadsheet updates daily but remember that only the prices at the end of the month are used to generate buy/sell signals. I also have a version of the basic IVY that uses different ETFs for the commodities (GSG in place of DBC) and bonds (VGIT in place of IEF) portions of the portfolio. GSG and VGIT have slightly lower fees than their counterparts. Also, note that due to the different composition of the ETFs the buy/sell signals may be different.
For this month both VNQ and VEU generated sell signals. VNQ is well down from its high and generated a strong sell signal by -5.03%. VEU just barely broke the 200 day SMA and generated a sell signal by just -0.11%. There is a good chance that this could be another false signal in VEU. For those who want to try and avoid a false sell signal you can wait for a follow through to the downside before selling VEU. Both IEF and DBC remain on sell signal. That leaves the overall portfolio just 20% invested and 80% in cash. The lower cost IVY model is 40% invested die to GSG being on a buy signal.
For previous posts on the basics of the IVY timing model and its performance see here and here. There are also posts on extensions to the basic IVY portfolio to include more asset classes (here) and some more aggressive models (here). Finally, this post discusses fees, commissions, and taxes.